9/22/20 8:00am
Steady-to-better crop ratings hit the market early last night but wheat has emerged as an unlikely leader in a minor recovery this morning; the bulls will likely try to hold off on a real setback for a bit yet until quarterly stocks and the next round of U.S. yield estimates next week.
National corn condition ratings rebounded by a point this week to 61% good/ excellent, up from 57% last year but still below the 66% five-year average pace. The corn harvest moved from 5% to 8% done, up from 6% LY but behind the 10% 5YA, though denting and maturity metrics remained ahead of their comparables. Soybean ratings were steady this week at 63% g/ex, up from 54% LY but slightly behind the 64% 5YA; the harvest there was initially reported at 6% done, up from 2% LY but even with the 5YA pace, with 59% dropping leaves, versus 37% LW, 29% LY, and the 50% 5YA. Winter wheat came in at 20% planted and 3% emerged, more or less in line with comparable figures, while the spring wheat harvest moved from 92% to 96% done this week, up from 84% LY but in line with the average for this week.
The Midwest will see some rain chances through this weekend, mostly north and far south, before drier conditions settle back in for both the 6-10 & 11-15 day periods into early October. Temps look cool up into those extended maps.
Dalian corn futures lower overnight after testing the previous high. Technically, further weakness on the Dalian expected.
Funds credited with selling 25K corn and 15K soybeans yesterday leaving them net long 61K corn and 219K soybeans.
Yesterday looked at the Hope, Greed, Fear and panic price continuum on soybeans. Interesting to see just how close that plays out this year. October crop report might have a lot to say one way or the other.
