6/14/2019 7:50am
Higher trade overnight as the market continues to digest USDA numbers and talk of more rain falling in the Midwest delaying planters again in some areas. End users pushing old crop corn bids as producer selling has slowed especially in the Eastern Corn Belt.
Soybean traders also showing concern about wet conditions stopping planters from rolling and yield reductions. But the soy complex is overshadowed by the large carryout, lack of Chinese business and U.S. is non-competitive in the global markets.
Managed money crowd has bought an estimated 117K contracts over the previous 3 days and by our count now hold a net long of over 200K contracts.
In five weeks, corn has rallied $1.12 in part by funds buying the equivalent of 3 Billion bushels of corn. Caution flag up at a net long of 200K. Market racing to discount a worst-case scenario for corn production..
Informa has corn yield at 169.2 bpa and production at 13.155 bln bu – another 500k+ below the USDA June.
2019 U.S. corn planted acreage 84.8 mln ac, -8 mln from March and -5 mln from June USDA 2019 U.S. soybean plantings 85.0 mln ac, up 370k from March/June USDA 2019 other spring wheat planting 12.2 mln ac, down 620k from USDA March 2019 cotton 14.035 mln ac, up 255k from March
Look for a higher call unless weather forecast change.
