1/25/2021 8:00am
Corn and beans attempted an evening rebound last night, from an ugly session on Friday, but have flipped positions with wheat this
morning; demand metrics remain stronger for the row crops, with USDA S&D moves able to sit and linger up through the key March acreage/stocks.
China sold nearly all their 4.03 MMT of wheat offered at the most recent state reserve auction, at a record average price of 2,455 yuan/MT ($10.32/bushel).
Friday afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed all U.S. cattle on feed as of January 1 at 11.965 million head, or 100.1% of last year; that was above the average 99.4% trade estimate. December placements came in at 100.8% of last year, up from the 97.0% trade guess, with December marketing's at 101.0% of last season, also above the 100.6% trade expectation.
Friday afternoon’s Disaggregated CFTC Report showed managed money funds liquidating 24.1k net corn contracts on the week ending last Tuesday (1/19), in contrast to the trade’s expectation for a 15k net gain on the week; the soybean complex was down only moderately (and less than expected) across the board in that category, with Chicago and KC wheat up 2-3k net each. Meanwhile, producers and merchants added anywhere from 5k to 12k net contracts across corn and the soy complex, on the week to Jan 19.
Argentina was dry over the weekend but rain coverage is seen picking up this coming weekend into the 6-10 day time frame; Brazilian rains fell from the central belt through the northwest, with strong chances continuing over the next ten days, only leaving some dryness lingering late for NE soy areas.
Corn now 49¢ off its January 13th high of $5.41 ½ with soybeans $1.38 ½ off its high.
Corn last night achieved a 38% retrace of the entire Nov-Jan leg of the rally ($4.93 ¼). The 50% retrace level would be $4.78 ¼. The kijun-sen, which corn tested in late November but could not push below, is currently at $4.82 ½. It has not closed below that line since August 14th, 4 days after the derecho wind event in Iowa.
