Edwards Market Thoughts

1/25/2021 8:00am 

Corn and beans attempted an evening rebound last night, from an ugly session on Friday, but have flipped positions with wheat this
morning; demand metrics remain stronger for the row crops, with USDA S&D moves able to sit and linger up through the key March acreage/stocks.

China sold nearly all their 4.03 MMT of wheat offered at the most recent state reserve auction, at a record average price of 2,455 yuan/MT ($10.32/bushel).

Friday afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed all U.S. cattle on feed as of January 1 at 11.965 million head, or 100.1% of last year; that was above the average 99.4% trade estimate. December placements came in at 100.8% of last year, up from the 97.0% trade guess, with December marketing's at 101.0% of last season, also above the 100.6% trade expectation.

Friday afternoon’s Disaggregated CFTC Report showed managed money funds liquidating 24.1k net corn contracts on the week ending last Tuesday (1/19), in contrast to the trade’s expectation for a 15k net gain on the week; the soybean complex was down only moderately (and less than expected) across the board in that category, with Chicago and KC wheat up 2-3k net each. Meanwhile, producers and merchants added anywhere from 5k to 12k net contracts across corn and the soy complex, on the week to Jan 19.

Argentina was dry over the weekend but rain coverage is seen picking up this coming weekend into the 6-10 day time frame; Brazilian rains fell from the central belt through the northwest, with strong chances continuing over the next ten days, only leaving some dryness lingering late for NE soy areas.

Corn now 49¢ off its January 13th high of $5.41 ½ with soybeans $1.38 ½ off its high.

Corn last night achieved a 38% retrace of the entire Nov-Jan leg of the rally ($4.93 ¼).  The 50% retrace level would be $4.78 ¼.  The kijun-sen, which corn tested in late November but could not push below, is currently at $4.82 ½.  It has not closed below that line since August 14th, 4 days after the derecho wind event in Iowa. 

 

Local Weather
Weather radar map

Sioux Center, Iowa (51250)

Current Conditions: Light snow
Temperature: 14°F Dew point: 12°F
Humidity: 92% Pressure: 29.97 in. Hg
Wind: 14 mph From: Northeast

Forecast

Tuesday
Weather condition
Hi: 19°
Lo: 6°
Wednesday
Weather condition
Hi: 17°
Lo: 8°
Thursday
Weather condition
Hi: 18°
Lo: 4°
Friday
Weather condition
Hi: 25°
Lo: 6°
Saturday
Weather condition
Hi: 32°
Lo: 15°
Sunday
Weather condition
Hi: °
Lo: °

Zip Code:

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Siouxland Cash Bids
Name Delivery End Basis Cash Price Futures Price

View all cash prices...
Quotes are delayed, as of January 25, 2021, 11:59:20 PM CST or prior.
All grain prices are subject to change at any time.
Cash bids are based on 10-minute delayed futures prices, unless otherwise noted.
Industry News

Click on the link below to find encouraging industry information that we would like to share with the supporters of both our company and the renewable fuels industry - 

http://www.ethanolproducer.com/articles/16668/ethanol-producers-need-to-reduce-their-ci-scoreundefinedand-quickly

Siouxland

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Letter to President Trump!

  

Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Time is running out, and we need to YOUR help TODAY.

America’s Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) is critical to revitalizing struggling farm economies, reducing our dependence on foreign oil, and protecting the climate. But Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) exemptions to oil companies have destroyed demand for billions of gallons of U.S. biofuels. President Trump vowed to restore lost gallons, but the current EPA proposal only accounts for a fraction of the demand destroyed by the agency’s unprecedented use of oil refinery waivers. We MUST demand action NOW before it’s too late.

https://fuelsamerica.org/call-president-trump-restore-biofuels-protect-rfs/

Join us TODAY in calling on President Trump to take action now to reopen biofuel plants and revitalize markets for America’s farmers.

Thank you in advance for your continued support.

Growth Energy

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Commentary
Cattle Close Mostly Higher -

Feb futures closed 20 cents lower on Monday, still a $7.52-$5.52 premium to the cash market. The other fat cattle futures ended the day 2 to 42

Wheat Gains Double Digits on Monday -

Domestic wheat markets closed the first trade day of the week with double digit gains. Chicago wheat closed 9 3/4 to 14 cents higher. KC HRW was up

Corn Closes Up Double Digits -

Front month corn prices gained 11 to 11 1/4 cents on Monday, recovering about half of the Friday sell off. USDA’s weekly Export Inspections report

Cotton Recovers on Monday -

Cotton prices didn’t recover all of Friday’s losses, but still ended with 58 to 77 point gains for the front months. New crop cotton prices are

Hogs Close Higher -

Lean hog futures were 47 to 70 cents higher at the closing bell on Monday. For May, that took out Friday’s high and $81.225 is the new life of

Soy Futures Start Week with Gains -

At the close, CBOT soy complex had recovered about half of Friday’s losses. Beans were back up by 26 1/4 to 31 3/4 cents. Soymeal futures closed

Full commentary...


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