Edwards Market Thoughts

4/22/2019 8:00am 

Lower trade overnight with little fresh news of any bullish significance at present.  U.S./China talks continue to string along and export demand also seems to continue to slump.  The funds have built a huge short position in corn with estimates as of Friday’s close at 331,887 contracts (1.659 billion bushels), soybeans they are short 95,744 contracts and Chicago wheat futures they are estimated to be short 68,970 contracts.

U.S. trade negotiators travel to China the week of April 29th for the seventh round of face-to-face meetings. China’s trade team will travel to U.S. the week of May 6th with hopes of finalizing a deal late May or early June. Has the China/U.S. talks taken too long?  

Estimated corn plantings by traders is at 8% complete (3% last year, 6-year average at 12%). Soybean plantings expected at 2% (2% five-year average). Hard Red Spring wheat plantings at 8% (25% five–year average).

China confirmed multiple outbreaks of African swine fever in two locations in Hainan province, an island off the southern coast which it had hoped to keep free of the contagious disease.  African swine fever has now been found in every province and region on the mainland, including Hainan island, since first being detected in August 2018.  The new outbreak suggests that the situation is "out of control," said Yao Guiling, a livestock analyst with Guan tong Futures.

Quick look at CN and SN against a year ago.

  

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Quotes retrieved on April 23, 2019, 07:37:20 AM CDT
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Commentary
Soybeans Fractionally Higher to Begin Tuesday -

Soybean futures are steady to fractionally higher after seeing 3 1/2 to 4 cent losses in the front months on Monday. Meal futures were down 70

Cotton Lower As USD Recovers -

Cotton futures are trading 66 to 87 points lower this morning. They were 17 to 22 points higher in most 2019 contracts on Monday, with nearby May

Wheat Posts New Lows and Tries to Bounce -

Wheat futures are trading UNCH to 2 3/4 cents higher on Turnaround Tuesday buying this morning. All three markets are in plus territory. They closed

Ag Market Commentary -

Corn futures are steady to 1 cent per bushel lower this morning. They ended Monday with most contracts 3 to 4 cents lower, as the 2019 contracts out

Cattle Down on COF But Cutouts Higher -

Live cattle futures were down 80 cents to $1.10 on Monday, with front month April down a tick. This was fallout from the Cattle on Feed report.

Corn Turns Positive on Slow Planting Pace -

Corn futures are steady to 1 cent per bushel lower this morning. They ended Monday with most contracts 3 to 4 cents lower, as the 2019 contracts out

Full commentary...