Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures saw 2 to 3 cent losses in the front months on Friday, with some pressure from losses in soybeans. December was still 2 cents higher for the week. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated that money managers in corn futures and options held a net short position of 170,626 contracts on Sept 17. That was an increase of 34,227 contracts from the week prior. Total corn export commitments as of 9/12 were just 17% of the USDA projection vs. the normal 27% pace for this time of year. The total 8.65 MMT in shipped and unshipped sales is the lowest since 2005/06 for the second week in the MY.

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.70 3/4, down 2 cents,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $3.81 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

MAY 20 Corn closed at $3.89 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents

JUL 20 Corn closed at $3.95 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans futures posted 9 to 10 1/4 cent losses in the front months on Friday. On the week, Nov was down 1.78%. Soybean meal was down $1.10/ton, with soy oil 53 points lower. On Friday, President Trump indicated that Chinese purchases of US ag goods alone would not be enough in order to get a deal done. Chinese delegates cancelled previously scheduled farm visits for next week in MT and NE. Spec funds trimmed their net short position in soybean futures and options by 43,556 contracts to -48,181 contracts as of Tuesday. In soy meal futures and options, they were within 500 contracts of their previous record net short position on Tuesday at 54,751 contracts. The total of combined shipped and unshipped soybean export sales is now 23% of the full year USDA export projection vs. the 40% average for this date. At 11.18 MMT, they are the smallest for week 2 of the new MY since 08/09.

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $8.82 3/4, down 10 1/4 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $8.96 1/2, down 9 1/2 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans closed at $9.08 3/4, down 9 1/2 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.19 1/4, down 9 1/2 cents,

OCT 19 Soybean Meal closed at $291.10, down $1.10,

OCT 19 Soybean Oil closed at $29.28, down $0.53

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures closed Friday with winter wheat contracts 2 to 4 cents lower, as MPLS was up 2 to 4 cents. Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders expanding their record net short position in MPLS wheat futures and options as of 9/17 at -23,071 contracts. Export commitments for 2019/20 wheat are still 20.4% larger than they were at this time last year. They are 46% of the USDA projected total, with the normal pace showing 52% complete at this point in the year. Russia’s IKAR left their 2019 wheat production estimate at 75 MMT, which compares to the USDA at 72.5 MMT. EU wheat production is seen at 143.3 MMT for 2019 according to Coceral, a 3 MMT jump from their prior number.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.84 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.07 1/2, down 2 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.24 1/4, up 4 cents

Source: Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures were down 22.5 to 67.5 cents on Friday. October was up 1.30% from last Friday. Feeder cattle futures were higher in the front months, with deferred contracts lower. Sep was 2.8% higher this week. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report showed August placements down 8.99% from last year at 1.884 million head and below estimates. Marketings were at 1.953 million head, down just 1.51% from last year on 1 less marketing day. September 1 on feed inventory was the smallest in 23 months at 10.982 million head, down 1.29% from last year. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up $1.24 on September 19 at $138.53. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes were down $1.20 at $216.97, with Select boxes 44 cents lower at $191.72. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter @ 658,000 head including the Saturday estimate. That is up 5,000 head from the same week last year and a 29,000 jump from the previous week. USDA reported a few $102 sales in KS on Friday, up $1 from Thursday’s trade action, with NE at $102 as well.

OCT 19 Cattle closed at $99.350, down $0.450,

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $105.150, down $0.675,

FEB 20 Cattle closed at $112.075, down $0.450,

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $140.325, up $0.375

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.200, up $0.275

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $137.025, down $0.225

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures closed 32.5 cents to $1.70 lower on Friday, with Oct down 9.21% this week. Weakness came on news that the Chinese delegation will be heading home early, skipping the planned farm visits in NE and MT. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another 44 cents at $56.32 on September 18. The USDA pork carcass cutout value FOB plant was up 13 cents on Friday afternoon at $69.15. Most of the strength came from the belly primal, up $4.89. The national average base hog value was down 22 cents at $44.14 on Friday. Estimated week to date FI hog slaughter was 2.587 million head through Saturday. That was well above the same week in 2018 and 24,000 head below last week.

OCT 19 Hogs closed at $60.350, down $1.050,

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $66.250, down $1.700

FEB 20 Hogs closed at $73.900, down $1.150

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures closed 3 to 24 points higher on Friday, with deferred contracts lower. Dec was down 2.75% on the week. Commitment of Traders data shows spec funds backing off their net short position in cotton futures and options by 9,674 contracts to -24,890 contracts on Tuesday. Export commitments of shipped and unshipped upland cotton sales are now 55% of USDA’s projected 19/20 total. That is above the 54% average pace but down from 68% for the same time last year. Thursday’s Cotton On-Call report showed mills with unfixed call sales of 23,888 contracts as of 9/13, with unfixed call purchases at 38,610 MT. The Cotlook A Index was down 90 points on September 19 at 71.50 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 54.62, effective through next Thursday. That is up 2.34 cents from the previous week.

OCT 19 Cotton closed at 59.02, up 3 points,

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 60.57, up 24 points

MAR 20 Cotton closed at 61.17, up 11 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 62.03, down 5 points

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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