Grain and Livestock Markets Come Under Pressure

Profit taking in grains and cattle was seen as we approach the last trading day of the month. Oliver Sloup was on RFD-TV yesterday sharing his thoughts on the markets. 

Corn

Technicals 

March corn futures failed to take out Wednesday’s high in yesterday’s trade which may have led to some profit taking.  That weakness has spilled into the overnight trade with help from Mexico/Canada tariff talk that is set to go into place this weekend.  Support remains intact from 477 3/4-479 3/4.  A failure here could trigger additional weakness via profit taking. December futures have been the strong month in the last 24 hours, something to consider whether you’re trading outright or as a spread.  

Technical Levels of Importance

• Resistance: 494 1/2**, 499-502 1/4**, 508 1/3-510****
• Pivot: 487-488
• Support:477 3/4-479 3/4***, 469 1/4-471 1/2***

Fundamental Notes

• Weekly Export Sales: Net sales of 1,358,500 MT for 2024/2025 were down 18 percent from the previous week, but up 39 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Japan (493,100 MT, including 181,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,300 MT), Mexico (426,900 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,700 MT), Spain (140,700 MT, including 63,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and 71,500 MT – late), South Korea (136,800 MT, including 130,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Colombia (129,200 MT, including 90,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,800 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (482,500 MT) and Morocco (1,700 MT). Total net sales of 45,800 MT for 2025/2026 were for Japan. Exports of 1,320,200 MT were down 13 percent from the previous week, but up 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Japan (335,700 MT), Mexico (314,700 MT), South Korea (141,800 MT), Spain (140,700 MT), and Colombia (122,200 MT).
• Brazil Corn Planting: With global corn supplies set for decade lows later this year, Brazil’s corn harvest cannot afford a mishap.Brazilian corn stocks are particularly tight heading into 2024-25, and planting of the second corn crop, which accounts for almost 80% of the country’s corn production, is off to a slow start.Brazil’s second corn output is predicted to rise modestly this year versus last, though if that fails, it could spell opportunity for the United States.Second corn in top growing state Mato Grosso was just 1% planted as of last Friday, the date’s slowest pace since 2011 but nearly identical to 2021. Both of those years plus 2016, another slow year, coincided with some of the state’s poorest corn yields. -Reuters  

Seasonal Tendencies Update

(Updated on 1.27.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for March corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).  

Commitment of Traders Update

• Managed money has amassed a considerable net-long position, which now totals 311,678 contracts between futures and options.

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